This week, I’m diving into some of the biggest topics shaping the CPG world right now. Pricing power is back in the conversation — why do some brands command it while others get squeezed? Then, we’ll look at how Guinness accidentally grew too fast, leading to shortages (yes, there’s a lesson in that). And finally, with tariffs causing chaos, premium brands like Lindt are adjusting their production strategies — what can we learn from their approach?

Happy reading!

#1 Pricing Power: The Ultimate Business Advantage

“The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got a very good business.”

That’s Warren Buffett speaking — and he’s absolutely right.

Pricing isn’t just a finance decision. It’s a brand strength test. The ability to control pricing, rather than being controlled by it, is what separates the leaders from the followers.

Some brands play this game better than others.

Who’s Winning the Pricing Power Game?

Tesco: Strategic Control in Key Categories

Tesco understands pricing power at a category level better than most retailers. Across certain essential products, they hold the line with competitive pricing to maintain foot traffic. But in other areas — where they own brand trust, convenience, and exclusive labels — they flex pricing strength without losing volume.

✅ Tesco’s Clubcard strategy reinforces pricing control — offering exclusive discounts while keeping non-members paying full price. This builds loyalty and protects margin at the same time.

✅ They manage price perception carefully — ensuring that the right products stay competitive while premium and convenience-focused items allow for margin expansion.

Apple: The King of Pricing Power (Until It Hit a Wall)

Apple defined premium pricing power — and for years, it raised prices without seeing demand drop. Why? Because its ecosystem, brand loyalty, and product differentiation made it almost immune to price sensitivity.

But even Apple hit a pricing ceiling in recent years. The demand elasticity of iPhones and MacBooks started showing cracks, forcing Apple to lean more on:

• Trade-in programs to offset price resistance

• Subscription models (Apple One, iCloud, etc.) to drive long-term value

• New product categories (Vision Pro, Services) to justify continued premium positioning

Why Pricing Power Matters More Than Ever

💰 Margins and Profitability Depend on It
Brands that control their pricing maintain better margins, stronger profitability, and more leverage in negotiations.

🛍️ Retail & Category Performance Hinge on Smart Pricing
Understanding pricing within your category isn’t optional - it’s mission-critical. If you’re just reacting to competitors, you’re not playing the game, you’re chasing it.

📊 ShelfMetrics: Data-Driven Pricing Intelligence
Tools like ShelfMetrics give brands the power to track pricing trends, monitor competitors, and adjust in real-time. This is how the smartest brands manage pricing strategically, not reactively.

In conclusion, if you can raise prices without losing customers, you own the category. If you can’t, your brand is playing defense.

#2 Guinness & The Four Levers of Category Growth: How Frequency Led to Shortages

Guinness isn’t just a beer brand — it’s a masterclass in category management.

While many beers spike in demand during summer, football season, or St. Patrick’s Day, Guinness has positioned itself as an “always-on” beer — a move that drove record consumption but also led to shortages in the UK at the back end of 2024.

How did this happen? Let’s break it down using the Four Levers of Category Growth.

Lever 1: Increasing Category Penetration (More Shoppers)

Guinness has been working for years to break out of its old-school perception as a beer for older drinkers or cold-weather occasions.

• Targeting younger consumers — leveraging influencer partnerships and experiential marketing.

• Tapping into the premium beer trend — positioning itself as more than just a stout, but a quality-driven experience.

• Expanding into new drinking moments — no longer just a pub pint, but also cans for home drinking, ready-to-drink Nitro Cold Brew, 0.0% and seasonal variants.

💡 Impact: Guinness successfully broadened its audience, pulling in more first-time drinkers — a huge factor in the brand’s surging demand.

Lever 2: Increasing Purchase Frequency (More Occasions)

This is where Guinness truly accelerated — leading to the supply issues in late 2024.

Historically, Guinness was seen as a seasonal, winter pub beer. But the brand worked hard to make Guinness an everyday choice — a shift that outpaced supply planning.

How? Strategic Sports Sponsorships

• English Premier League partnership → A huge shift that put Guinness at the heart of the UK’s biggest year-round sporting event, directly influencing drinking occasions in pubs and at home.

• Premiership Rugby sponsorship → Owning another key moment in the sporting calendar to drive frequency.

Event-driven drinking: From St. Patrick’s Day to Six Nations Rugby, Guinness engineered high-frequency drinking moments outside its usual winter stronghold.

Perfect pint obsession: The surge in home-keg systems and the popularity of Guinness Nitrosurge drove at-home consumption, meaning drinkers weren’t just waiting for a pint at the pub.

💡 Impact: Guinness went from being a “sometimes” beer to an “always-on” beer, increasing frequency across all seasons — but supply couldn’t keep up as I found out at Christmas in thee pub. It’s also one of my clients.

Lever 3: Increasing Basket Size (More Per Trip)

Guinness has also been pushing larger formats, encouraging shoppers to buy in bulk rather than one-off purchases.

• Multipack strategy: Supermarkets have driven larger basket sizes, particularly for home consumption, where Guinness Draught Cans and Nitrosurge Kits have become a staple.

• Seasonal gift sets: Packaging innovations, including holiday-themed gift packs and home-pouring kits, have driven multi-unit purchases.

• Premium upsell: Guinness 0.0 has expanded reach, giving non-drinkers and moderation-focused consumers another reason to buy.

💡 Impact: Instead of people just buying a couple of pints at the pub, Guinness is now being stocked at home, meaning bigger volume purchases — and greater strain on supply.

Lever 4: Increasing Price per Unit (Trade Up/Premiumization)

Guinness isn’t fighting for cheap beer market share — it’s owning premium beer culture.

• Guinness Nitrosurge & Microdraught — turning a home pint into a premium experience.

• Brand-led pricing power — Guinness remains less price-sensitive than mass-market beers, retaining loyal consumers even with price hikes.

• Pubs treating Guinness as a flagship product — some bars have even introduced dedicated Guinness taps and staff training to maintain quality.

💡 Impact: Even with shortages, Guinness has been able to maintain premium pricing and brand desirability, rather than competing in a race to the bottom.

The Takeaway: Growth Comes with Challenges

Guinness has executed a textbook strategy in growing its category presence, but the rapid frequency growth created a supply crunch.

• More shoppers, more drinking occasions, bigger basket sizes, and premium positioning — Guinness nailed all four growth levers.

• The downside? Supply wasn’t fully prepared to support the level of demand, leading to shortages in key UK markets at the end of 2024.

Guinness is proof that the right strategy can turn a brand into a year-round essential — but execution needs to match ambition.

#3 Navigating Tariff Turbulence: How Brands Like Lindt Are Adapting Production Strategies

In the complex landscape of international trade, tariffs can significantly impact a company's bottom line. Recent developments have prompted CPG brands operating in the US to reassess and adjust their production strategies to mitigate these financial challenges. A notable example is Lindt & Sprüngli, the renowned Swiss chocolatier, which has announced plans to shift production for Canadian demand from its U.S. facilities to European plants.​

Strategic Production Shifts: Lindt's Response to Tariffs

Lindt's decision underscores a broader trend among multinational consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies to optimize their supply chains in response to escalating tariffs. By relocating production destined for Canada from the U.S. to Europe, Lindt aims to circumvent the additional costs imposed by these tariffs, thereby maintaining competitive pricing in the Canadian market.​

The Implications of Passing on Costs to Consumers

Passing a 25% tariff-induced price increase onto consumers could lead to substantial market share losses, especially in categories where non-U.S. products serve as viable alternatives. Consumers may switch to other brands offering similar quality without the added cost burden, prompting CPG companies to explore strategies to sidestep these tariffs effectively.​

Challenges in Adjusting Production Locations

While shifting production can mitigate tariff impacts, it introduces complexities:​

• Increased Production and Shipping Costs: Manufacturing in alternative locations may entail higher operational expenses.​

• Extended Lead Times and Inventory Management: Longer supply chains require meticulous planning to prevent stock shortages or overages.​

• Product Specifications and Compliance: Variations in packaging sizes or product formulations across regions may necessitate new UPC codes and adherence to different regulatory standards.​

The Role of 'Tariff Engineering' in Supply Chain Strategy

Some companies employ 'tariff engineering' — modifying product design or assembly processes to qualify for lower tariff classifications. For instance, certain automotive manufacturers have adjusted vehicle features to benefit from more favorable tariff rates. However, these strategies must comply with legal standards to avoid penalties. ​

The Broader Impact on Global Supply Chains

The ongoing trade tensions have prompted a reevaluation of global supply chains:​

• Diversification of Manufacturing Hubs: Companies are exploring production facilities in multiple countries to mitigate risks associated with any single market.​

• Nearshoring and Regionalisation: There's a growing trend toward bringing production closer to key markets to reduce exposure to international trade disputes.​

• Investment in Trade Compliance: Firms are enhancing their capabilities to navigate complex trade regulations and avoid potential pitfalls.​

Conclusion

As trade policies continue to evolve, companies like Lindt exemplify the proactive measures brands can take to adapt. By strategically adjusting production locations and supply chain configurations, businesses can mitigate the adverse effects of tariffs, protect market share, and maintain favorable pricing for consumers. However, these shifts require careful planning to balance cost savings against potential operational challenges.

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