This week, we're getting to the bottom of some subtle yet powerful shifts in retail. We'll ask if shrinkflation is more about boosting profits than managing costs, expose the clever pricing strategies supermarkets use to influence your weekly shop, and finally, challenge the traditional "target audience" concept, urging brands to delve deeper into real consumer behavior.

Happy reading!

#1 Shrinkflation Is Real - But Are Brands Just Quietly Boosting Profits?

Freddo has spoken. Or rather, Freddo has shrunk. Again.

What was once a 5-pack is now a 4-pack.
Same bright wrapper. Same childhood nostalgia.
Just one less bar.

This is a classic case of shrinkflation - the tactic brands use when they want to manage rising costs without hiking prices on-shelf.
But here’s the question we should be asking now:

Is shrinkflation still about inflation - or is it just a profit-maximising play in disguise?

What Is Shrinkflation, Really?

Shrinkflation is the practice of reducing product quantity while keeping the price the same. It’s not new. But post-pandemic inflation and supply chain pressure made it far more common.

For brands, it’s a tactical way to:

• Avoid breaking key price points (like the £1 barrier)

• Retain promotional appeal (4 bars “feels” more generous than £1.29 for one)

• Reduce packaging and production costs

But what started as a response to rising costs now feels like a default move, not a defensive one.

Freddo: From 10p to Case Study

Let’s be honest - Freddo has long been the poster child for inflation in the UK.

• Once 10p

• Now often 30p or more

• And now even multi-packs are quietly shrinking (as this photo shows—down to 4 bars from 5)

No huge announcement. No front-of-pack disclaimer. Just a quiet reformulation of value.

Yes, the pack includes a Merlin attraction discount as a sweetener (pun intended), but the fact remains: You’re getting less for the same price.

The Trust Problem

Here’s the real issue:

• It’s not just the reduced portion size

• It’s the lack of transparency

Most consumers can handle a price rise or size change - if they’re told why.
But when brands shrink products without acknowledging it, it feels sneaky. It undermines trust, especially with legacy brands that trade on nostalgia and heritage.

In an age where transparency = currency, shrinkflation without explanation is brand erosion in disguise.

Are Brands Actually Pocketing More Margin?

In some cases? Probably, yes.

Input costs may have stabilised, but the smaller formats haven’t returned.
If packaging, distribution and retail pricing remain flat, those “lost” grams or extra missing bar go straight to the bottom line.

And in categories like confectionery or snacks, where volume is king and shoppers rely on autopilot? It’s easy to hide a price increase behind a smaller unit count.

What Brands Should Be Doing Instead

• Be upfront: “We’ve reduced size to keep pricing fair” - this actually works when said plainly.

• Offer choice: Let consumers pick between formats (e.g., 4 bars vs 5 bars at a higher price).

• Add real value: If you're shrinking, find ways to build back trust - exclusive experiences, loyalty tie-ins, or richer storytelling.

• Use it as a reset: Honest pricing and right-sizing can be the foundation for more resilient, future-proof brand models.

Final Word

Shrinkflation isn’t going away. But the danger is when brands stop seeing it as a necessity - and start seeing it as a quiet revenue play.

Freddo may be smaller, but consumer expectations aren’t.

In a cost-of-living crisis, honesty goes further than any promo ever will.
Brands that own the shrinkage? They might just grow their credibility in the process.

#2 Your Weekly Shop Just Got Smarter - But Not In Your Favour

We like to think grocery shopping is simple: compare prices, find a deal, get value.
But spend enough time on your supermarket’s app, and you’ll start seeing the patterns.

Take this from my recent Tesco browse:
🧀 Same cheese twists. Same brand. Same size.
Yet priced at £0.79 under “Usuals” and £1.45 under “Why Not Try?”

That’s an 84% markup - on the exact same item.

And here's the kicker: most shoppers won’t notice. They’ll grab it from whichever section they land on first.

The Invisible Hand of Digital Price Manipulation

Retailers know you need food. Food demand is inelastic—we don’t stop eating when prices rise. That makes grocery a perfect playground for dynamic pricing tactics.

They test. They segment. They A/B the digital shelf.
🧪 What happens when a shopper sees this product at £0.79 vs £1.45?
🧪 Does it perform better in a different category tile?
🧪 Does Clubcard pricing change behaviour?

One product. Multiple price points. Same goal: revenue optimisation.

This isn’t just data-driven marketing - it’s digital-first margin engineering.

Why Grocery Prices Aren’t Falling (Even When Inflation Does)

Because they don’t have to.

Retailers have learned how to:

• Optimise for profit over perception

• Micro-test price elasticity across customer segments

• Deliver "value" without actually lowering cost

And with loyalty cards, they now own the most valuable asset of all:
your behaviour patterns.

They know:

• How often you buy

• Which sections you browse

• How many alternatives you consider

• What offers make you switch (and which ones don’t)

Personalised pricing at scale is already here, it’s just not transparent.

For CPG Brands: A Pricing Wake-Up Call

This isn’t a “cost-plus” environment anymore. If you’re still pricing off margins rather than shopper elasticity, you’re leaving money (or market share) on the table.

Questions brands need to ask themselves now:

• Where is your product showing up across retailer touchpoints?

• What are the price ranges it’s appearing at—even for the same SKU?

• How do placement and pricing interact on digital shelves?

• How much can you raise before shoppers bounce to private label?

💡 You don’t just need a pricing strategy. You need a retailer-specific optimisation strategy.

For Shoppers: “Good Value” Is Now Contextual

What looks like a bargain might just be a test cell in a retailer’s pricing experiment.

That “Why Not Try?” section?
It could be serving a price-tested variant based on your browsing habits, not a genuine deal.

So don’t assume the digital shelf is objective. It’s a curated, dynamic experience—designed to extract maximum margin, not maximum trust.

Final Word

Welcome to the new world of grocery pricing, where:
🛒 One product has many prices
📲 The app knows more about you than you think
📉 And “falling prices” are an illusion built on segmentation

Retailers are playing a smarter game.
Brands need to play smarter too.
And shoppers? Keep your eyes open - and your receipts closer.

Because your weekly shop isn’t just about groceries anymore.
It’s about how much you’re willing to pay without even noticing.

#3 Forget “Target Audience”—Start Understanding Real Consumer Behaviour

When brands talk about “target audiences,” what they often mean is:
🧍 A made-up persona with a name like “Health-Conscious Hannah”
📍 A vague demographic: aged 25–45, lives in urban areas
📊 And maybe a few bullet points lifted from last year’s TGI or Kantar deck

But that’s not how people actually behave.
People don’t buy in neat segments. They buy based on routines, needs, triggers, and trade-offs.

If you want to build a brand that actually connects, you need to go deeper.
That’s where PersonaForge comes in.

Why Behaviour Beats Demographics Every Time

Your consumer isn’t just a "25–34-year-old woman who likes yoga."
She’s:

• Someone who shops online after 9pm

• Chooses based on speed, not brand loyalty

• Gets influenced more by WhatsApp recommendations than TikTok trends

• Buys in bulk when anxious, but trades up when she feels in control

That’s real-world behavioural insight.
And if your strategy doesn’t account for it, you’re building on sand.

PersonaForge: Built to Decode Real Consumer Patterns

PersonaForge helps you map and understand:
✅ Pain points — What’s frustrating them in your category?
✅ Decision-making — What matters more: convenience, price, or identity?
✅ Habits — When and where do they shop? Alone or with others?
✅ Triggers — What makes them try something new?
✅ Barriers — What stops them from converting or re-purchasing?
✅ Moments that matter — What are the occasions you should show up for?

This isn’t about building personas to tick a box.
It’s about creating a strategic foundation that lets you activate across:

• Product development

• Digital marketing

• Retail promotions

• Loyalty and CRM

Use Case: Planning a Launch? Don’t Guess. Map the Moment.

Let’s say you’re launching a new functional drink.
Traditional targeting might tell you to aim at “health-conscious millennials.”

But with PersonaForge, you might discover:

• They buy at petrol stations post-gym

• They scroll reviews in-store on their phone

• They care more about energy without crash than added vitamins

• They’ll pay a premium—but only if the product fits into their current routine, not requires a new one

💡 Suddenly your launch plan isn’t just broader—it’s smarter.

What This Means for Brand Building

• Insight beats instinct

• Behaviour trumps broad targeting

• PersonaForge helps you design for what people do, not just who they are

When you start thinking in terms of real-life moments, motivations, and decision paths, your brand doesn’t just show up—it makes sense.

Final Word

Forget chasing demographic boxes.
Start understanding the human behaviours that drive your category.

Whether you’re planning your next campaign, NPD launch, or DTC experience—PersonaForge gives you the base layer you need to get it right.

Best of all? It’s free (for now).

👀 See what your customers are really doing.
👉 Use PersonaForge and build strategy that’s behaviour-first.

Free Tools to Help your Brand

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With PersonaForge, you can transform vague assumptions into sharp, strategic actions that drive results.